Friday, April 4, 2008

The Lotto Probability

Bloggista’s comment on my April Fool’s post made me also think: which is of greater probability to happen, me, winning the 6/49 lotto jackpot of 240 million pesos or GMA stepping down from the Presidency making a graceful (yet full of shame) exit? I studied probability way back in my Statistics class. Though most of the topics in that subject are difficult for my math-aversive mind, our young, hot and energetic teacher made us never fail in attendance…at least in attendance.

Though my post was not really to fool readers or mislead them, I think I did at some point. However, my real point of posting that was to stir, especially in the end part of the blog, of which really is probable and possible among the two abovementioned choices. I would also want to at least taste even just in fantasy and daydream the day that GMA heads to the fire exit when the burning greed and corruption inside her administration is already out of control and Filipino people are already coming in to extinguish it forever.

240 Million Lotto Jackpot

According to the Philippine Lottery and Sweepstakes Office (PCSO), only a single lucky person won the 240 million jackpot, the biggest in PCSO history last March 30, 2008. This lucky guy/gal made a bet with the winning number combinations in small betting outlet in Quezon City. Today, he is an instant multi-millionaire! Damn! It therefore tells everyone that I am not the winner, maybe in the near future.

Back to my discussion here. Of millions of people lining up like ants on procession on thousands of betting stations all over the country, what is the odds that you could be the lucky one to take home the whole lot? Well, I searched the net for some math wizards for answer and here is what I got. The probability of winning the jackpot in a 6/49 lottery draw is [url=""]1/13,983,816[/url]! It is like winning against more or less 16% of the whole Philippine population! It is like waking up and you already own one big corporation. It is like all graces and luck from all sides of the galaxy has converged on your winning ticket.

The probability is really slim and I must some mystical powerful force, call it grace, luck or simply fortunate coincidence is at work here. And this powerful force is not always at work with and for everyone. You may bet everyday for the rest of your life but there is no assurance for you to win. The total money that you placed on your bet could have amounted to the minimum jackpot for sure.

Gloria Arroyo Heading the Exit

Before the controversial and cheating-tainted election of May 2004, GMA publicly announced with her queer smile fronted with her rodent-like front teeth, her “sincere” decision of not running anymore for the Presidential post. This she said as her own contribution and sincere act to attain unity and reconciliation in the country after the much-troubled transition from the ousting of Erap through the so-called People Power II, that the leaders of these movement now judge as a “shame” and failure. But the gentle breeze change into a public storm signal when GMA decided to run for the highest post of the land and cheated her way on top. She asked for a rehearsed apology in the television with her face shown like a widow who killed her own husband to get a multi-million insurance. And for all of us, the story goes of lies, deceit, corruption and scam here and there happening under her cloak of dictatorship.

The question is: What is the odds that Gloria will step down from the Presidency and head through the gates of judgment? This question is a very difficult and tight one to analyze and at the same time ponder for us to arrive at some approximate if not accurate answer.

Well, looking GMA in accordance to her previous actions, words and decisions, one arrives at a definite answer that she is a person who can never be trusted. Simply put it this way, one can never put his/her safety on her hands. Moreover, trust. Her lies, corruption, scams and deception to her very own circle of influence and allies and especially to the public is a testament to the fact that we are not assured that first, she will step down if the clamor of people and street protest reaches its peak and second, she will step down after her term on 2010.

Rallies and protests, investigations and impeachment protests are failures if the main criterion for success is its goal for her to step down as soon as possible. Every branch of our puppet government is under her mercy (except the Senate, but at to this point, we can see that they are helpless and losing their ground on most issues despite a public satisfaction on their performance). The Supreme Court is hers, the Lower House of Congress is hers, the Military, the Police Force, the Local Government Units (LGUs), the Vice-President, the Commission on Elections, the oligarchs…what is else can one person so small yet so powerful could ask for to have absolute hold of her seat? She will not step down before 2010. Fact.

How about after the 2010. This is even a more difficult one to answer for what we can only do is project and treat the issue like Nostradamus consulting our crystal ball. With the LGU’s movement of pushing for Charter Change and everyone of her allies all placed on vital positions, her prolonging of her reign of terror is not impossible. As they did many times in the past (especially Enrile), they could easily stage orchestrated crises, troubles, crimes, rebellions and a milieu of chaos to declare a martial rule if the change of our constitution will not be accomplished at the soonest time. Then, we are all silenced. Her reign is prolonged until history will arm itself against a dictator.

She could then accumulate wealth, more and more wealth than what she has done and is still doing of plundering our treasury. And as they say, “power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely”. She will ultimately face the day of reckoning when time will topple her down. A fact. And all she can do is escape, and maybe, a prepared place for exile where she and her family could live in excess is already in place to welcome her. Or she may ultimately become sick and her physical health would tear her down. She could die as a dictator or in exile. A fact. Or she could be jailed and tried for treason. A fact. Or she could be exiled at some distant lands (hopefully at some Pacific atolls where nuclear bombs are tested) and in just a couple of years, could go back to the country like the Marcos family like nothing happened. Never tried, never jailed and winning graft cases against the people of this nation. A fact.

Therefore, as Kris Aquino tells her interviewees, “We can never can tell”. But I say, I a pretty sure that what I can tell is that GMA is not trustworthy.

GMA vs. Lotto Jackpot

I am now confronted to give my judgment of which between the two is most probable to happen. I think it is important for me to point out that these two are distinct from each other for the issue on winning a Lotto jackpot could be treated with precision using mathematical solutions and procedures, thus, we can arrive at a definite answer; while the issue on GMA is a complex reality of being human who has already been swallowed by the dark side, thus, we can never give a precise answer. The issue of GMA in short is a very tricky one, it is like talking and bargaining with a devil.

But I think I would still go with the Lotto jackpot. You can win a lotto jackpot with 13 million plus probability. While GMA won the presidency by “cheating” 80 million Filipinos and more or less 40 million voter.

What do you think, want to bet?

Share Some Love, Share This Post and Spread the News

Show some LOVE, Like this Page on Facebook
Freshest Updates from Ani-Mo!right on your E-mail Inbox:

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

No comments:

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...